Congrats on the Noah Smith tweet! Nice analysis, though shouldn’t we expect wages to rise with quit rates, which have risen across occupation groups? Or are you suggesting it’s a mix shift issue; i.e., job growth is among sectors that still have low quit rates? It’d be interesting to see the job growth and wages for the sectors you broke out to check this.
Also have to mention what seems the most natural explanation: wages are being turned into bonuses, or equity grants. That said, I’ve had trouble verifying how BLS wage data treats these nonwage income components. More going toward healthcare costs also seems plausible.